Fallacies and Cognitive Biases: Bandwagon Effect ~ by Ransom

This article is part of an ongoing series that began with Fallacies and Cognitive Biases.

The above picture is a detail from "50 Cognitive Biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you"

"Ideas, fads, and beliefs grow as more people adopt them."

I will rephrase that tautology.  "Ideas, fads, and beliefs gain attractiveness as more people adopt them."

This cognitive bias occurs when something rises in our estimation just because more people adopt it and not because we actually know anything more about it.

Or do we?

This is both a risk management tool and a value discovery method.  The adoption rate of fads or beliefs does provide two kinds of information:

First, the mass adopters take on whatever risks exist in what they are adopting.  The more people adopt it the more risk is explored, reducing risk for those who have not yet decided.

Second, mass adoption suggests value in what is being adopted.  While mass adoption does not prove something's worth to the undecided it does provide a form of research.  Adoption by those who are more similar to the undecided probably suggests a greater likelyhood of value.

There is a third and different type of information provided; in-group signalling.  Adoption allows the adopter to signal group alignment and participation.

Mass adoption proves nothing but suggests quite a bit.  As with all of life it is important to exercise discernment.

Errata: The Bandwagon Effect filters against some kinds of risk more than others.  Slow-to-emerge risks that show up after the decision-making period are not weighed.  Risks due to systemic adoption are not weighed.