This article is part of an ongoing series that began with Fallacies and Cognitive Biases.
The above picture is a detail from "50 Cognitive Biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you"
"We believe more people agree with us than is actually the case."
The blurb does not need expanding.
This cognitive bias reflects a tribal outlook in two ways:
The total population of the world is large and abstract. The number of people we know is human-sized and relatable. We tend to know people with beliefs similar to our own. The ratio between the relatable and the abstract will be heavily-weighted to the relatable. The people way over there may as well not exist.
The people we have the strongest relationships with are the most consequential to us. We tend to build relationships with those of similar beliefs. People with dissimilar beliefs are likely less consequential to us.
Thus the people who's opinions matter are more likely to agree with us than does the world at large.
To rewrite the blurb, "we believe more people agree with us on average in our village than in the world at large."
Of course we overestimate the number of people who agree with us. The people closest to us give the most important information at the lowest price. Marginal increases in accuracy provide less value at increased cost. The False Consensus cognitive bias allows us to stop researching when we know enough to stay stubbornly alive.
As with many cognitive biases this makes us factually wrong but functionally right. The "error" arises when rational human behavior is examined from the planet Vulcan instead of the perspective of the people actually involved.
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