Fallacies and Cognitive Biases: Moral Luck ~ by Ransom


This article is part of an ongoing series that began with Fallacies and Cognitive Biases.

The above picture is a detail from "50 Cognitive Biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you"

"Better moral standing happens due to a positive outcome, worse moral standing happens due to a negative outcome."

This cognitive bias occurs when we deduce someone's virtue from his success.  The winners won because they were good & the losers lost because they were bad.

Note that this does not claim that might makes right; quite the opposite.  Successes indicate moral qualities but do not create them.

This cognitive bias is an artifact of the human affinity for narrative, of our need to explain events in terms of stories.  It is also a consequence of what winning and losing means.

We will examine this from a different angle.

What happens to the victor after victory?

The victor expands, gaining territory, converts, and power.  All these things lead to expanded legacy; more people will adhere to the victor's perspective and identity.

What happens to the defeated after defeat?

The defeated loses legacy.  Fewer people will adhere to the loser's perspective and identity.

At any moment the world will be peopled primarily by those associated with winners.  Move a century in either direction and the situation will be the same though the winners are different.

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