Aaaaight. This is more of a PSA than a proper article. It is short and doesn't have much editing to shield you from my famously raw opinions. Let's get on with it.
It is probable that food supply lines will be even more stressed this winter than they were in the spring.
There are three main reasons:
1) Many food storage container components are sourced from China, and their production has not fully recovered from the COVID shutdowns.
2) Probable disruptions surrounding and following the election this November.
3) While plant-based foods have many processing plants, meat packaging is centralized into a relative few facilities. If one meat plant shuts down due to COVID infections it has a meaningful impact on domestic supplies.
I was first introduced to this via the Prepping 2.0 Podcast Episode 94. More is discussed in Episode 97 (start at 12 minutes). If you want to listen to them go ahead but be warned that they are older Gen-Xers with an appallingly Boomer sense of humor.
Finding corroboration is tricky due to the search engine being fervently convinced that I am worried about catching COVID from Chinese take-out. I did get hits for some of this from obvious scare sites. Prepping 2.0 did link to this video on YouTube discussing state & federal purchases of storage foods. Not much to go on but we can look at what has happened and what is likely to happen as a useful guide.
1) We saw what happened to store shelves this last Spring. While the industry has that experience to guide future actions there are limits to what they can do. Consumers remember and are primed to get "spooked."
2) Food production has not gone up. In cases such as meat processing and bad harvests it has gone down.
3) The US and China aren't getting along any better. This probably has some effect on the availability of food & food containers here.
4) The food container production supply chain has been battered. Businesses have shut down due to COVID. Many of those businesses are no longer financially viable and their productive capacity is removed. These effects are somewhat remediated due to businesses & governments knowing of the problem and adjusting production accordingly but it is unlikely to be the same as the pre-COVID capacity any time soon.
5) Protests & riots pose a threat to food distribution. This is not such a big problem at the moment but who of us expects the November elections to not see increased chaos for a protracted period of time?
So what does this mean for us?
1) Food packaging will change to compensate for component availability issues. This probably won't matter for use but may not look the way you expect.
2) Many specialty foods will be impacted as resources are used in other ways.
3) Processed foods will be less available than raw foods. Canned meats will probably be less available or more expensive than raw meats in the fridge or freezer section.
4) Shortages again due to people stockpiling or panicking.
5) If the power grid is impacted by winter storms or riots preserved foods will be far more valuable than raw foods.
6) Bonus point: gardening seeds are probably going to disappear much
Obviously I am in no position to tell you what to do or buy but be advised that what we have seen may only be a prelude to what happens next.
The good thing about stockpiling food you already eat anyway is that you increase your security but are not out any money -- you just shift your demand in time.
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