Fallacies and Cognitive Biases: Pessimism Bias ~ by Ransom

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that began with Fallacies and Cognitive Biases.

The above picture is a detail from "50 Cognitive Biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you"

"We sometimes overestimate the likelihood of bad outcomes."

This is a risk management bias.

By overestimating the likelihood of bad outcomes we are more likely to behave in ways that guard against the downside of events.

This is a form of insurance.  While good outcomes are beneficial bad outcomes are disproportionally negative.  Something good adds to what we already possess and while nice to have is probably not critical.  Something bad may damage the infrastructure that allow us to survive.

As a result it is rational to guard against bad outcomes in excess of their statistical probabilities.