Fallacies and Cognitive Biases: Availability Cascade ~ by Ransom

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that began with Fallacies and Cognitive Biases.

The above picture is a detail from "50 Cognitive Biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you"

"Tied to our need for social acceptance, collective beliefs gain more plausibility through public repetition."

This cognitive bias is a risk management tool.  It draws from the Bandwagon Effect and Groupthink.

As with the Bandwagon Effect, public repetition of ideas informs two types of risk assessment: physical risk and risk of ostracism.

Large numbers of people holding a belief constitutes research; we can see what some of the physical consequences of the belief are instead of finding out for ourselves.

Large numbers of people holding a belief demonstrates that the belief is acceptable to the group; they have demonstrated that we will not be cut out of the in-group for holding the belief.

As with Groupthink, sharing the belief leads to acceptability and access among peers.  Whatever the direct physical consequences may be at least you will be backed up by your group.

As with the Bandwagon Effect the Availability Cascade does not provide defense against systemic risk due to mass adoption or the consequences that take longer to manifest than the decision-making cycle.

As with Groupthink the Availability Cascade is a helpful heuristic for the individual but robs the system of long-term cognitive fitness.

See Bandwagon Effect, Groupthink.