Fallacies and Cognitive Biases: Survivorship Bias ~ by Ransom

 

This article is part of an ongoing series that began with Fallacies and Cognitive Biases.

The above picture is a detail from "50 Cognitive Biases to be aware of so you can be the very best version of you"

"We tend to focus on those things that survived a process and overlook ones that failed."

This bias is not cognitive.  It arises from the limits of information-processing abilities.

What does it mean for something to survive a process?  What does it mean for something to fail?

In most processes survival means continuation, growth, and visibility.  Failure means extinction.  Therefore, the amount of information propagated by the survivor will exceed the amount of information propagated by the failure.

Also, people gravitate towards winners and seek to imitate them.  Due to Confirmation Bias and Framing Effect people will identify traits & behaviors exhibited by leaders and attribute success to them.  Surveying the similarities between winners and losers may reveal that the traits and behaviors were exhibited by both and that the difference in success is due to something unperceived or even just random luck.

The reason winners win is not the same as the reason losers lose.  As with musical chairs success may simply be the prize for the last loser.

See Moral Luck, Forer Effect (aka Barnum Effect)